Moderate world leaders whose popularity had been waning for months, if not years, have seen a sudden uptick in their political fortunes in what has been dubbed the ‘Trump Bump’.
President Donald Trump’s widespread tariffs against allies and attempts to shake up historic alliances appears to have breathed fresh life into incumbent governments much to the detriment of MAGA-friendly right-wing populists.
From Britain to France, Canada to Germany, centrist or centre-left world leaders had appeared to have become out of fashion.
In each country they faced a growing threat from right-leaning political parties that looked destined to dominate the political landscape in the not so distant future.
But, following the election of Trump and his return to the White House their destinies suddenly do not seem so bleak.
This sudden surge in support for establishment parties has been dubbed the ‘Trump Bump’ by the New York Times and is being seen as a knee jerk reaction across Western nations to the President’s efforts to tear up the world order.
For Europe, this has been felt most acutely through Trump’s response to the Ukraine war after Trump booted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky out of the White House following their war of words in the Oval Office.
And the continent is also coming to terms with the brutal reality that it might not be able to rely on America for its security anymore.
President Donald Trump ‘s widespread tariffs against allies and attempts to shake up historic alliances appears to have breathed fresh life into incumbent governments much to the detriment of MAGA-friendly right-wing populists
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Downing Street. Starmer has taken a central role in Europe’s response to Ukraine which included holding a summit with fellow European leaders earlier this month
French President Emmanuel Macron had been one of the most unpopular president in the history of the country. But now his approval ratings have risen for the first time since June last year
Rather than dividing Europeans, Trump has become ‘the great unifier of Europe’ according to Constanze Stelzenmüller, an expert in trans-Atlantic relations at the Brookings Institution in Washington, which has brought the continent closer together.
In the UK, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has had a rocky first seven months in power which saw his party slump in the polls despite having only just won a historic landslide victory.
On the eve of Trump’s inauguration Starmer’s Labour Party were polling in third place at 24 per cent behind the Conservative Party – who lost power last summer after 14 years in government – and the right-wing Reform UK which were both tied for first place.
However, since January 20, Starmer has taken a central role in Europe’s response to Ukraine which included holding a summit with fellow European leaders earlier this month.
His response has been praised across the political spectrum and Labour is being rewarded in the opinion polls – with the latest survey showing a fresh three point lead for the party.
Meanwhile, Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage – who has developed close ties with Trump since as early as 2016 – seem to floundering now as their leader struggles to fend off accusations he sympathises with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Across the English Channel in France, French President Emmanuel Macron had been one of the most unpopular president in the history of the country.
He has been widely viewed as a lame duck president who was constitutionally barred from running for a third term and faced a permacrisis with his minority government constantly on the brink of collapsing.
Sir Keir has had a rocky first seven months in power which saw his party slump in the polls despite having only just won a historic landslide victory but his response to Ukraine has been praised across the political spectrum
Meanwhile, Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage – who has developed close ties with Trump since as early as 2016 – seem to floundering now as their leader struggles to fend off accusations he sympathises with Russian President Vladimir Putin
Macron with Starmer and Zelensky last month. Macron has put himself at the centre of the European Union’s efforts to bolster defence spending for Ukraine to plug any holes left behind by the US.
But now his approval ratings have risen for the first time since June last year which now stands at 31 per cent according to Bloomberg.
This comes after Macron put himself at the centre of the European Union’s efforts to bolster defence spending for Ukraine to plug any holes left behind by the US.
Macron’s main rival the leader of the hard right National Rally, Marine Le Pen, has distanced from herself from Trump in recent weeks after refusing to criticise the leader in the past.
Speaking to French media, she condemned the ‘brutality’ of the withdrawal of US aid to Ukraine.
Le Pen’s change of heart might have been prompted by a fear of being burned by the French electorate for her closeness to an increasingly unpopular US administration.
In Germany the country recently went to the polls in one of the first elections since Trump returned to the White House.
While the incumbent centre-left SPD slumped to third place in the worst showing for the party since the 19th century, the election was won by the centre-right CDU led by Friedrich Merz.
But the real story of the night was the surge in support for the AfD who came second in was the best showing for a far-right party in post-war German history.
Macron’s main rival Marine Le Pen, the leader of the hard right National Rally, has distanced from herself from Trump in recent weeks after refusing to criticise the leader in the past
Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU and presumptive Chancellor of Germany, has staked a claim to the leadership of Europe with his call for the continent to take charge of its own security due to the threat posed by Russia and the unreliability of the United States
A poster for the AfD during Germany’s recent election. The far-right party surged to second place in the best showing for a far-right party in Germany’s post-war history
However, despite the historic result, many analysts expected the party to perform even better on polling day last month and the party saw a slight slump in surveys days before the election.
This dip in support came after Billionaire and close Trump ally Elon Musk endorsed the party.
Meanwhile, Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU and presumptive Chancellor of Germany, is changing Germany’s debt laws to enable it to fund a mammoth increase in military spending.
Merz has staked a claim to the leadership of Europe with his call for the continent to take charge of its own security due to the threat posed by Russia and the unreliability of the United States.
Indeed, just as former Chancellor Angela Merkel lead the EU through the financial crisis and with Macron out of office in 2027, it would appear as though Merz is setting himself up to lead the bloc through this next stage of the conflict and whatever comes after a potential ceasefire.
Across the pond, the leaders of Canada and Mexico are also benefiting from the ‘Trump Bump’.
Both nations have been impacted by Trump’s tariffs which have sparked a trade war with Canada and Mexico.
The already popular President of Mexico, leftist Claudia Sheinbaum, has seen her approval ratings rise to an astronomically 85 per cent.
Tech billionaire Elon Musk addresses a rally for the AfD. The party saw a slight slump in its support after Musk endorsed the party
The already popular President of Mexico, leftist Claudia Sheinbaum, has seen her approval ratings rise to an astronomically 85 per cent
Justin Trudeau sheds a tear as he resigns as PM of Canada. Before Trump had re-entered the White House Trudeau and his Liberal Party looked set for a historic defeat at Canada’s upcoming general election which forced Trudeau to step down
This may not leave her politically unscathed from the likely economic damage of the trade war but may strengthen her hand as Mexicans rally against perceived unfair treatment.
In Canada, before Trump had re-entered the White House Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party looked set for a historic defeat at Canada’s upcoming general election.
The pressure was so great on Trudeau that he resigned on January 6 after almost a decade in power.
After Trump announced tariffs against Canada last month, Trudeau and the Liberals have surged in the polls cutting the Conservative party’s lead from over 20 per cent to single digits with some surveys even putting the Liberals ahead.
In Trudeau’s final approval rating poll before he stood down as leader on March 14 the number of Canadians who approved or disapproved of the leader was nearly equal with 47 per cent approving of Trudeau and 49 per cent disapproving.
Now under the leadership of the former Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, the popularity of the Liberals has only continued to rise with one poll putting the party a whopping 17 per cent ahead of the Tories.
This has been much to the detriment of the leader of the Conservatives Pierre Poilievre whose political fortunes have dramatically shifted since the start of the year.
The populist Pollievre gained much of his political capital in recent years piggybacking off the unpopularity of Trudeau. But now that Carney is in charge and the Liberals are now the most popular they have been in over two years this strategy looks to have been a massive blunder.
The new Canadian PM Mark Carney. Since he became leader the popularity of the Liberals has only continued to rise with one poll putting the party a whopping 17 per cent ahead of the Tories
The Canadian leader of the opposition Pierre Pollievre. The rise of the Liberals in the polls This has been much to the detriment of Poilievre whose political fortunes have dramatically shifted since the start of the year
On top of this, polling from the Angus Reid Institute – a Canadian polling company – Carney is trusted more by Canadians to handle biggest issues facing Canada.
This includes a 25-point lead ahead of Pollievre on the question of who will handle the trade war with America better.
Meanwhile, the American people’s view of Trump has remained largely positive at home.
According to polls by Gallup, Trump’s approval ratings are hovering around 47 per cent which is slightly higher than this time in his first term.
Trump faces potential economic headwind as the country looks to be teetering on the edge of recession.
Since Trump started his trade wars, US stocks have slumped but at the same time the number of Americans who have missed out on car payments has hit a record high.
Before the 2008 recession, a surge in defaults on subprime mortgages triggered a financial meltdown.
Meanwhile, the American people’s view of Trump has remained largely positive at home
Now, a similar pattern is emerging in the auto loan market, raising concerns that the US economy could be heading for another downturn.
Buyers are facing higher prices for vehicles, insurance, and repairs at the same time as they’re contending with rising rent and costs at the grocery store.
On top of this, investment is dropping, job creation is weak and consumer confidence is disappearing sending warning signs of a growing economic crisis in America.
And any crisis in America will send tremors across the world which for moderate leaders could see any ‘Trump Bump’ vanish very quickly.
