“The investigation into the cause of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash is underway and it is wrong to speculate before it gives its conclusions,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday.
An Embraer EMBR3.SA passenger jet crashed near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, killing 38 people, after diverting from an area of Russia that Moscow has recently defended against Ukrainian drone attacks.
The crash has sparked intense speculation, including claims of a possible Russian air defense attack – a theory that has been denied by Moscow.
Early findings and official statements
The investigation is still in its early stages, and Kazakh authorities have confirmed that they have recovered 38 bodies from the crash site. At least 29 survivors were hospitalised, though the extent of their injuries has not been publicly disclosed. The flight had been diverted to Kazakhstan after initially changing course due to poor weather conditions in Russia. The plane was originally heading to Makhachkala in Russia, before diverting again to Aktau, located about 310 kilometers east across the Caspian Sea.
A preliminary investigation suggested that a bird strike might have caused the crash, although some aviation experts have expressed doubts. Video footage from the crash site that emerged on social media has raised questions, with some observers suggesting that the damage to the aircraft was inconsistent with a bird collision. Instead, some have speculated that the aircraft could have been hit by a missile or another form of attack.
In response to these rumors, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Thursday urged caution, emphasizing the importance of waiting for the official investigation to reach its conclusions. “It is wrong to speculate before the investigation is complete,” Peskov said, adding that all parties should refrain from jumping to conclusions.
Passenger and crew details
The Embraer 190 aircraft was carrying 62 passengers, including citizens from Azerbaijan, Russia, and other countries, as well as five crew members. According to Azerbaijan Airlines, the plane had undergone a full technical inspection in October and had no known issues prior to the flight. The airline has declined to comment on speculation regarding the crash’s cause, with President Samir Rzayev telling reporters in Baku that a “detailed investigation” was underway.
Azerbaijan Airlines also announced on Thursday that it was suspending all flights to both Grozny and Makhachkala until the investigation is concluded. This has raised eyebrows, with some aviation experts suggesting that the airline may suspect safety risks in the region’s airspace. “It is highly unusual for an airline to suspend all its flights to a region without a clear explanation,” said Andrei Litvinov, an independent aviation expert and pilot based in Moscow. “This could indicate a serious concern about the safety of the airspace.”
Conspiracy theories
As the investigation progresses, social media has been flooded with conspiracy theories surrounding the crash. Theories suggest that the plane could have been hit by a Russian anti-aircraft missile system, possibly related to ongoing tensions in the region. Both Makhachkala and Grozny had recently been targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks, which has fueled speculation that the plane might have been accidentally or deliberately hit by Russian defenses. These claims, however, remain unsubstantiated.
The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that both Ukrainian sources and aviation safety consultants Osprey have suggested the possibility of a missile strike, pointing to the timing and location of the crash in relation to recent drone activity near Russian-held areas. However, this theory has yet to be confirmed, and Kazakhstan’s emergency services have emphasized that the cause of the crash remains under investigation.
