The buzz word inside Newcastle United is ‘headroom’, a PSR allowance that enables them to spend big come the summer. But what they risk is an even bigger headache, if by keeping their powder dry the cannon backfires and they miss out on the Champions League and a first domestic trophy in 70 years.
It is now three transfer windows without a first-team addition. A new signing would have brought freshness to a dressing-room where the elephant sits by the empty pegs. It was Eddie Howe who introduced the word ‘stale’ last month when talking of the dangers of not refreshing a group who have gone so hard for so long.
There is also nothing quite like a new face to bring excitement to those in the stands. Ahead of tonight’s Carabao Cup semi-final second leg against Arsenal, delicately and nervously poised at a 2-0 advantage, it would have been a timely boost.
When Anthony Gordon was signed exactly two years ago, it took him longer than the club hoped to impact. His arrival, though, brought an immediate improvement in the performance of others. Newcastle made the Carabao Cup final and qualified for the Champions League. They gambled and they won. This time, the dice are on ice.
‘I don’t think it’s ideal,’ said Eddie Howe, who has lost two players without reinforcement. ‘We’d have loved to bring new energy into the group – that’s being very honest – but that wasn’t to be our world in this window, so we have to make the best of the situation. We are trying to manage PSR and make decisions that will benefit us long term.’
Howe did not throw any punches nor his toys from the pram when reflecting on the window that wasn’t. But speculate to accumulate would have been the preference of the head coach and many supporters. The club, rather, have adopted a policy of abstain to accumulate still further, albeit at a later date.
Eddie Howe admitted that Newcastle would have ‘loved’ to have been active in the window
The club, however, have adopted a policy of abstain to accumulate further in the summer
There is logic and a fair degree of necessity to the business stance of sporting director Paul Mitchell and others – short-term pain, long-term gain. But the football argument is very different – short-term pain could yet lead to long-term pain.
Newcastle have a wealth of talent in their starting XI but compared to their rivals, an impoverished squad. Of 102 substitutions made this season, only two have gone on to score a goal. Such frailty has meant that while the ceiling is high, the floor is low.
They could have tried to make a signing after Miguel Almiron moved to Atlanta United for £10million and Lloyd Kelly was allowed to join Juventus on loan, with a £20m obligation to buy this summer. It would have perhaps meant selling again in June to meet the PSR calculation, but fail to make the Champions League and one or two of their top stars will be ready to go anyway.
It is a high-wire act riddled with complexities – some tangible, some not – and only with the benefit of time will we know whether they maintain their balance or crash to the floor. As of today, there is no right or wrong, just opinion as to an approach that leaves the squad thin but the summer budget potentially fat.
This debate – and supporters are split – has formed an irritable backdrop to the visit of Arsenal, the biggest game of the season so far. Protect the lead from a brilliant and brave first leg in North London and they will be back in the capital next month, one match from ending the country’s most infamous trophy drought.
But much has changed in the four weeks since that night at the Emirates Stadium, when Alexander Isak was so good the home fans missed a trick in not applauding him from the field. You can no longer book a train to London from Newcastle on the day of the final, such was the rush for tickets after that first encounter. A few would have been checking the refund policy in recent days, however, as expectation makes way for anxiety.
Transfer dealings have weakened Howe’s hand – when he looks to his bench there are no aces, especially in attack – and his team have lost at home to Bournemouth and Fulham, while Arsenal have just beaten Manchester City 5-1. Bournemouth’s 4-1 win, in particular, has unnerved the locals and will serve as inspiration for the Gunners.
It is why Howe knew it was not the time to throw toys nor hand grenades on the eve of the game, with confidence bordering on fragile after those back-to-back home losses. If anything, it is a siege mentality he will engender between now and the end of a campaign that could still rank as the club’s greatest in more than half a century. That is what the manager has reminded his players.
Lloyd Kelly completed a move from Newcastle to Juventus late in the January window
Transfer dealings have weakened Howe’s hand as they head into the final stretch of the season
‘You’ve got to embrace everything in your situation and you’ve got to figure out how to get the best out of it,’ he said, drawing comparison with a transfer embargo in his early days at Bournemouth. Now there is something you would not have imagined under Saudi ownership.
‘The squad now is lighter in numbers but high in quality. We knew from the off this month we weren’t in the incoming market. It was about controlling sales that navigated us out of a problem.
‘So it’s different emotions for me. I think overall there is an element of frustration, because we have not taken the squad forward in a positive way. But the financial issues mean the club has to act in a certain way. I’ve got to work on behalf of the football club in all moments, good and bad, and that’s what I’m trying to do.’
For Howe, there will be relief that business decisions are filed away – at least for now – and that football is the only item on his agenda. Get past Arsenal and the tension that has simmered since Saturday’s defeat by Fulham will evaporate in an instant. There will be no financial caution in pursuit of Wembley tickets and travel for the Toon Army. They will march there if needs be. But fail to make the final and there will be no talk of headroom. Head loss, more like. It is a fine line between success and failure, prudence and neglect.
But there is a view that the club’s warning of short-term pain is at odds with a real opportunity of short-term gain. They have one boot in a domestic final and, with a couple of traditional rivals out of the running, a top-five finish is there for the taking. In looking at the bigger picture, the hierarchy may have missed the potential of the one in front of them.
