LITTLETON, Colorado, – China’s steady expansion to coal-fired power capacity has drawn ire from U.S. power system advisers who gripe that there’s little point in cleaning up generation at home while China lifts coal-fired emissions ever higher.
But those arguments overlook the fact that China’s power generation network is already substantially cleaner than several major U.S. power systems, thanks to record-fast deployment of clean energy supplies.
Indeed, China’s power system emitted less carbon dioxide per unit of electricity production last year than that of the state of Florida and several other major U.S. power systems.
And while China keeps adding more clean energy, many U.S. power networks are primed to add more natural gas-fired capacity in keeping with the wishes of the new Trump administration, which is disdainful of renewable power.
Those diverging trends look set to result in ever-cleaner power supplies for China’s economy while U.S. power systems become more dependent on fossil fuels that will further boost the country’s pollution levels.
CLEANING UP
China’s power system relied on fossil fuels for 62% of electricity output in 2024, data from energy think tank Ember shows.
That fossil fuel share compares to 58% for the United States, and means that while the two power systems differ in scale – China produces more than twice as much electricity as the U.S. – they are currently similarly reliant on fossil fuels.
However, China has made more aggressive boosts to both clean power and overall electricity output over the past five years.
Between 2019 and 2024, China’s clean-powered electricity supplies jumped by 68%, lifting total electricity output by 36%.
Over the same period, U.S. clean power production climbed by 17%, while overall electricity supplies climbed only 5%.
China’s steeper boost in clean generation resulted in a speedier gain for clean power within China’s generation mix, which expanded from a 31% share in 2019 to a 38% share in 2024.
That compares to a 38% clean power share in the U.S. in 2019, and a 42% clean share in 2024.
China’s continued roll-out of utility-scale renewables generation systems will continue to lift clean power’s share in its generation mix over the rest of this decade.
In contrast, clean power’s share of the U.S. generation mix may stall near current levels, as utilities plan to add more gas-fired power capacity over the next five years.
DECLINING INTENSITY
The growing share of clean power within China’s electricity system is leading to steady falls in the country’s so-called carbon intensity of electricity production.
In 2024, China’s electricity generation system emitted an average of 534 grams of CO2 and equivalent gases for every kilowatt hour of electricity output, according to energy portal electricitymaps.com.
That compares to an average of 395 grams of CO2/kWh in the United States, and means that China’s electricity production is around 35% more carbon intensive than the U.S. system.
However, while the Chinese system operates off a single grid run by the State Grid Corporation, the U.S. system is divided up into three main grids operated by six different so-called reliability entities and powered by multiple utilities.
Each utility system in turn operates off its own distinct mix of power sources, and means that some sub-systems have a far greater carbon intensity than others.
Some of the most carbon intensive U.S. power systems span multiple states, such as the Western Area Power Administration which operates across parts of South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska and Colorado.
The WA system had an average carbon intensity of 675 grams of CO2/kWh in 2024, which was 26% greater than China’s.
Other power networks are more localized, such as the Jacksonville Electric Authority in Jacksonville, Florida, which had an average intensity of 717 grams of CO2/kWh in 2024, or 35% more than China’s grid.
Two other large Florida power systems also had a higher carbon intensity than China’s grid last year, and that means that a majority of Florida’s power supplies came from a higher-emitting power system than China’s in 2024.
And that trend is only likely to widen as Florida – which has a ban on offshore wind power and limited incentives for utility-scale solar plants – plans to boost gas-fired capacity.
Other U.S. power systems that also have a higher carbon intensity than China are similarly intent on further fossil-heavy growth.
The Associated Electric Cooperative , which operates across Missouri, Oklahoma and Iowa, had a carbon intensity of 676 grams of CO2/kWh in 2024 and is commissioning at least one new gas-fired plant.
PacifiCorp, which serves customers in Oregon, Washington state and California, plans to add a 5 gigawatt gas peaking plant and had a carbon intensity of 614 g of CO2/kWh last year.
China also plans additions to its fossil fuel power fleet, including over 200 gigawatts of new coal-fired capacity, according to Global Energy Monitor .
But China is also clearly intent on growing clean energy supplies at a faster pace than fossil-fuel power, which means its power carbon intensity looks set to keep declining and could feasibly drop below that of the U.S. in the coming years.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.
This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
