Prices Won’t Crash, But the Frenzy Will Cool
Don’t hold your breath if you’re waiting for a price correction. New projects from trusted developers sell like hotcakes, and inventory remains comfortable. Propequity, a real estate data platform, shows that the unsold inventory of new launches in top metros is far from alarming. Even in Gurugram, where prices have doubled in two years, supply is tight.
I prefer to focus on long-term trends. Since 2019, NCR prices have surged 212%, with inventory shrinking to 11 months from 26. Mumbai, India’s most expensive market, experienced a more measured 28% rise during the same period, with unsold inventory in 14 months.
Bengaluru has seen a 67% price jump since pre-COVID days, with inventory down to 13 months. While having the highest unsold stock at 20 months, Hyderabad remains within stable levels. While much of the price surge has happened in recent years, viewed against a longer timeline, the trends appear rational.
Inflation is sticky, land isn’t getting cheaper, and developers aren’t desperate yet. That said, even bullish builders know the past four years’ price surge isn’t sustainable. Ultra-luxury sales ( ₹5 crore+) are showing signs of slowing. We’re in the fourth year of a bull cycle, and let’s face it—only a fraction of Indians can afford homes priced at ₹1 crore+. Housing demand will also rationalise as stock market gains shrink.
Also Read: Why Budget sops won’t lure private developers into affordable housing
Smart builders see this shift and are already rolling out payment plans to make it easier for home buyers. For instance, Emaar’s Urban Ascent on Dwarka Expressway offers a 20:30:50 plan. Signature Global and Prateek Group also offer flexible payment options. I’m not a big fan of easier payment plans, which are front-loaded on pricing. However, if competitively priced, they are worth your while. Additionally, these plans signal that the housing market is opening up to negotiations. So, sharpen your skills.
The Resale Market: Your Secret Weapon
Developers aren’t slashing prices, but investors might. Many high-ticket sales in hot markets like Gurgaon’s Golf Course Extension, Dwarka Expressway, Hyderabad’s High-Tech City region, and some micro-markets of North Bengaluru are partly being driven by wealthy buyers snapping up multiple units, hoping to flip them. Yes, resale inventory is creeping up.
I recommend checking property listing platforms for projects launched in 2022-24. In some projects, resale prices are already lower than the builder’s current asking rate. Use this as leverage when negotiating with developers; they know you have options.
RERA Research: A Must-Do
Before you reach for the cheque book, head to your state’s RERA website and check the developer’s filings. Pay special attention to the project timelines. Many builders now give themselves six years to complete projects to avoid RERA penalties.
Can you afford to pay both rent and EMI for that long? Also, labour shortages are real, and even top builders are facing construction delays. Don’t assume a promised deadline will be met. Verify before committing.
How do you do that? Go by the past delivery track record. Some developers are notorious for delays. If their previous projects have not been delivered in time, don’t expect a miracle this time. If you can secure information on the financial closure of a project, do that. Ask hard questions about how the project is funded. Some of it is a Google search away—a PE Fund investing in a project generally makes it to the mainline media.
The Case for Ready or Near-Ready Homes
If you don’t want to take chances, buy what you can see. A well-maintained resale apartment in an established condominium is often a smarter purchase than a new launch. Older homes typically offer more carpet area because builders have been shrinking sizes to offset rising costs. They also come with the advantage of immediate possession—no waiting, no delays and yes, no double burden of EMI + rent. Plus, established communities have ready infrastructure and amenities.
Home Loan Rates: The Sweetener
One big cheer in 2025: the RBI’s 0.25% rate cut after five (phew!) long years. And if inflation cools alongside a global economic softening, more rate cuts could be on the horizon. Lower EMIs mean better affordability, making this the sweetest relief existing and new homebuyers could get in 2025.
Final word: buy smart, not out of fear. As a buyer, you will have more power in the coming year. Today’s real risk isn’t missing out—it’s making an emotional, rushed decision. Take your time, do your homework, and negotiate hard.
